Civil Unrest Update
November 29th, 2008I thought it might be a good time to say something again about the civil unrest going on here in Bangkok. First off, I don’t know anything more than most, as my only source of information is the news services.
As far as what the environment is like, one wouldn’t know anything is going on unless he ventured into certain pockets of the city, and the airports of course.

The whole thing looks to me like a big Mexican standoff. The police don’t want to take any serious action, probably due to the bad press they got for blowing a guys leg of with a tear gas container early in the game. I suspect the military doesn’t want to get involved, as it would only fuel rumors of another coup. Nobody wants to detain the PAD leaders for fear it would cause things to dramatically escalate. So the whole thing appears to be a massive demonstration of typical Thai tolerance. It kind of reminds me of two school kids puffing chests on the playground, neither willing to strike the first blow for fear of the consequences.

By my observations, most of the real violent acts, aimed at someone other than those fighting with each other, have been more of a news grabbing scare tactic than anything. The only serious incident that comes to mind was the marketplace bombing, and I’m not sure anyone can legitimately say which side was responsible for it. I’m not trying to play down the violence, but it just doesn’t seem like anyone is really trying to do a lot of physical harm in all of this.
Under the current state of affairs, if a coup was to take place, and I’m not taking a position in favor or against, it would probably play out much like the one two years ago. In which case, you wouldn’t even know it was going on from most vantage points in the city. Of course, a shift in military leadership could change things, but that isn’t the situation, at least for the moment.

My gut tells me this whole thing is going to come to a head fairly soon, but possibly not until we are past the 5th of December national celebrations. Of course, I doubt it’s lost on anyone the timing of all the transportation shutdowns so close to next week’s important festivities. How this will play out is anyone’s guess, and a subject for speculation by many on the forums. I’ve watched these self appointed pundits spew their opinions of other things in the past, only to find they were completely wrong. So I don’t put much stake in anything said there.
It’s blatantly obvious the airports and railway situation is intended to create a financial squeeze. The purpose of which is to force a resolution to this face-off. While it is a huge imposition for travelers, and will certainly have a long-term impact on tourism, I really don’t think travelers are at risk of anything more than frustration and inconvenience.

Many believe the handling of the airports situation will be a determining factor in how all of this shakes out, and I’m inclined to agree. For the moment, it’s a wait and see, but I wouldn’t be canceling my reservations just yet.
UPDATE
An RQD Reader comments, “I am just wondering why you turned comments off on your post about the airport. I would like to know what your other people who live in Thailand that read your blog think. I just cancelled my second trip to LOS and I don’t feel foolish doing that but I would like to know what others think.”
Both of my posts about the unrest have had comments turned off. I debated long and hard about this, but in the end I don’t want these posts to be a platform for discussing the sensitive topics of Thai politics and/or government policy. Its outside my comfort zone.
If you want to get an idea what others think about their safety in Thailand, read the comments posted in this Bangkok Post article…










